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Indigo A Study Of Historical Inflation Forecasts Used In The Department Of Defense Future Years Defense Program | Erin Mills Town Centre
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This thesis explores historical inflation forecasts used in the Department of Defense (DoD) Future Years Defense Program. Recent General Accounting Office reports assert DoD inflation forecasts mandated by the Office of Management and Budget(OMB) are optimistic and exhibit a downward bias. This study tests this assertion by examining historical DoD forecasts against experienced inflation as measured by the Gross Domestic Product and Gross National Product implicit price deflator (GNP/GDP IPD) from 1979 to 1996. This study also compares the accuracy ofDoD forecasts with those made by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Data Resources, Incorporated (DRI). The results regarding the performance of historical DoD inflation forecasts are mixed. Upon examining budget through five year GNP/GDP IPD forecast spans, DoD short-term results do not indicate a downward bias and DoD long-term results do indicate a slight downward bias. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
This thesis explores historical inflation forecasts used in the Department of Defense (DoD) Future Years Defense Program. Recent General Accounting Office reports assert DoD inflation forecasts mandated by the Office of Management and Budget(OMB) are optimistic and exhibit a downward bias. This study tests this assertion by examining historical DoD forecasts against experienced inflation as measured by the Gross Domestic Product and Gross National Product implicit price deflator (GNP/GDP IPD) from 1979 to 1996. This study also compares the accuracy ofDoD forecasts with those made by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Data Resources, Incorporated (DRI). The results regarding the performance of historical DoD inflation forecasts are mixed. Upon examining budget through five year GNP/GDP IPD forecast spans, DoD short-term results do not indicate a downward bias and DoD long-term results do indicate a slight downward bias. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
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