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Indigo Ukraine and Russia: An Ongoing Conflict: Work Papers, #8 | Erin Mills Town Centre
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The central problem is to explain what combination of historical, strategic, political, and domestic factors transformed the Russo-Ukrainian relationship from the dissolution of the Soviet Union to the crisis under examination. The analysis considers together the European security architecture, Ukraine's geostrategic position, Russian and Ukrainian decisions, Western action, and internal political and identity-based cleavages.
Working thesis. The principal hypothesis is realist and relational: the eastward expansion of the Western political-military space, Moscow's perceived loss of strategic depth, Ukraine's centrality to Russian security, and the contest over Ukraine's international orientation produced a security dilemma that raised the costs and risks of decisions by all parties. This explanation does not eliminate the agency of any actor. Causal explanation, political justification, and legal or moral responsibility are treated as distinct categories.
Rival hypotheses. The thesis is tested against four explanations: Russian agency and revisionist or sphere-of-influence objectives; Ukrainian agency and the construction of sovereignty; competition among institutional projects of integration; and political-identity factors, including nationalism, historical memory, regional divisions, and language. No single explanation is treated as self-sufficient.
The central problem is to explain what combination of historical, strategic, political, and domestic factors transformed the Russo-Ukrainian relationship from the dissolution of the Soviet Union to the crisis under examination. The analysis considers together the European security architecture, Ukraine's geostrategic position, Russian and Ukrainian decisions, Western action, and internal political and identity-based cleavages.
Working thesis. The principal hypothesis is realist and relational: the eastward expansion of the Western political-military space, Moscow's perceived loss of strategic depth, Ukraine's centrality to Russian security, and the contest over Ukraine's international orientation produced a security dilemma that raised the costs and risks of decisions by all parties. This explanation does not eliminate the agency of any actor. Causal explanation, political justification, and legal or moral responsibility are treated as distinct categories.
Rival hypotheses. The thesis is tested against four explanations: Russian agency and revisionist or sphere-of-influence objectives; Ukrainian agency and the construction of sovereignty; competition among institutional projects of integration; and political-identity factors, including nationalism, historical memory, regional divisions, and language. No single explanation is treated as self-sufficient.
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